LTV in COD: how to measure repeat purchases and what a customer is worth over 90 days

Bruno Costa · 2026-10-07

Simple formula

To calculate LTV (Lifetime Value) in a COD (Cash on Delivery) model, use the formula:

LTV = (Average Order Value x Purchase Frequency) x Retention Time

• Average Order Value (AOV): the average value of orders placed by customers.
• Purchase Frequency (PF): the number of purchases made within a specific period.
• Retention Time (RT): the number of months a customer keeps buying.

For example, if the AOV is R$ 100, the PF is 2 purchases per month, and the RT is 3 months, the LTV would be:

LTV = (100 x 2) x 3 = R$ 600

Niche with repeat purchases

Some niches with high repeat purchase rates include:

• Beauty and cosmetics: products used regularly, such as creams, makeup, and perfumes.
• Supplements and nutrition: customers looking to maintain their health and well-being.
• Apparel: seasonal collections that encourage new purchases.

These segments have a significant track record of repeat purchases, making it easier to analyze LTV.

Subscription offer

An effective strategy to increase LTV is to implement subscription offers. This ensures recurring revenue and builds customer loyalty. Consider:

• Progressive discounts for subscriptions.
• Regular product deliveries (e.g., monthly).
• Access to exclusive products or presales.

These initiatives can increase purchase frequency, significantly boosting LTV.

Maximum cac based on LTV

CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) should be proportional to LTV. A rule of thumb is that CAC should not exceed 30% of LTV.

If LTV is R$ 600, the maximum acceptable CAC would be:

Maximum CAC = LTV x 30%
Maximum CAC = 600 x 0.3 = R$ 180

This ensures that acquiring new customers is sustainable and profitable.

Spreadsheet

A simple spreadsheet can help you track LTV and CAC. Consider including:

• Columns for Average Order Value, Purchase Frequency, and Retention Time.
• Automatic LTV calculation.
• CAC calculation and comparison with LTV.

Use historical data to adjust your projections and track performance over time. This will help you make more informed decisions about ad spend and marketing strategies.

What average LTV have you been seeing in your COD operation over the last 90 days?